Thunder Bay housing market
Market conditions in Thunder Bay
Why this flag
New homes: Seller's market
- In Thunder Bay, 1 newly completed homes were still unsold in Sep 2026, while 32 were sold or rented on completion over the previous 12 months. At that pace, the unsold stock would take about 0.4 months to clear.
- Under 3 months of inventory means new homes are selling faster than unsold stock builds up, which favours sellers.
- Statistics Canada doesn't publish a new housing price index for Thunder Bay, so this flag is based on supply alone.
Rentals: Soft
- The vacancy rate for purpose-built rental apartments in Thunder Bay was 4.3% (October 2025 survey, CMHC).
- Above 4%, renters have more choice and more room to negotiate.
The new-home flag covers newly built homeownership and condo units only, not resale homes; resale conditions need MLS® sales and listings data, which we don't use. No agency publishes official cut-offs, so these thresholds are ours. Flags update automatically with each data release. How flags are set
Why dates differ: Statistics Canada publishes metro population estimates once a year (latest: July 1, 2025), and CMHC's Rental Market Survey runs once a year in October (latest: October 2025 survey). Construction and new-home price figures are monthly, so their dates are more recent. Each figure shows its own reference period and is the latest published.
Key indicators
Housing starts (last 12 months)
403units
+33.0% vs prior 12 months
Sep 2026 · CMHC
Completions (last 12 months)
187units
−34.2% vs prior 12 months
Sep 2026 · CMHC
Homes under construction
569units
+61.2% vs 12 months earlier
Sep 2026 · CMHC
Dwelling units permitted (last 12 months)
616units
+102.0% vs prior 12 months
Sep 2026 · Statistics Canada
Rental vacancy rate
4.30%
+1.0 pts vs prior year
October 2025 survey · CMHC
Purpose-built apartments (6+ units); annual October survey.
Average rent, 2-bedroom
$1,493
+3.8% vs prior year
October 2025 survey · CMHC
Purpose-built rentals (row and apartment, 3+ units); annual October survey.
Asking rent, 2-bedroom apartment
$1,980
+6.5% vs 12 months earlier
Apr 1, 2026 · Statistics Canada
Experimental estimate from new listings; not what sitting tenants pay.
Unsold new homes (unabsorbed inventory)
1units
−85.7% vs 12 months earlier
Sep 2026 · CMHC
Completed homeownership and condo units not yet sold or rented; excludes purpose-built rentals.
New homes absorbed (last 12 months)
32units
+28.0% vs prior 12 months
Sep 2026 · CMHC
Population
133,765persons
+0.3% vs one year earlier
July 1, 2025 · Statistics Canada
New homes completed per 100 added residents
41per 100
Sep 2026 · CMHC
Descriptive ratio of new supply to population growth; not a measure of need.
Calculated: completions (12m) / population growth (2025-01, 12m) × 100
Completions per 1,000 residents
1.4per 1,000
Sep 2026 · CMHC
Calculated: completions (12m) / population (2025) × 1,000
Starts per 1,000 residents
3.0per 1,000
Sep 2026 · CMHC
Calculated: starts (12m) / population (2025) × 1,000
Analysis
Thunder Bay housing market analysis
Construction and supply
Builders started 403 homes in Thunder Bay over the 12 months to Sep 2026, up 33.0% from the previous 12 months.
187 homes were completed over the same period (down 34.2%), and 569 were under construction at the latest count (up 61.2% year over year).
More homes are being started than finished, so the construction pipeline is growing and should keep completions up in the coming months.
Building permits, which come before construction starts, covered 616 dwelling units over 12 months, up 102.0%. Rising permits usually point to more starts ahead.
Of newly completed homes, 1 were still unsold or unrented at the latest count (down 85.7%), while 32 new homes were sold or rented on completion over the last 12 months (up 28.0%).
Population and housing need
Thunder Bay's population was estimated at 133,765 (July 1, 2025), growing 0.3% over the year.
That works out to 3.0 housing starts per 1,000 residents, and 1.4 completions per 1,000.
Roughly 460 residents were added in the latest year, about 2.5 new residents for every home completed. That is close to or below typical household size, so new supply is keeping pace with population growth.
Rental market
CMHC's Rental Market Survey put the purpose-built rental vacancy rate at 4.3% (October 2025 survey), up 1.0 percentage points from the previous survey. A rate of 3% or more is generally considered balanced or soft, giving renters more choice.
The average two-bedroom rent across all purpose-built units was $1,493 a month, up 3.8% year over year.
Advertised two-bedroom rents averaged $1,980, up 6.5% year over year.
Borrowing costs
Borrowers who took out a new uninsured mortgage in Aug 2026 paid an average of 4.58% on fixed terms of five years or more and 3.90% on variable rates, according to the Bank of Canada. The five-year-plus fixed average is up 0.3 percentage points from a year earlier.
Variable rates sit 0.68 points below long fixed terms, so borrowers are paying a premium for payment certainty.
The Bank of Canada's policy rate is 2.50% and the banks' prime rate is 4.70%. Variable-rate mortgages are priced off prime, so they move when the policy rate changes; fixed rates follow Government of Canada bond yields, with the 5-year yield at 3.53%.
Written from the latest official figures and refreshed whenever new data are released. It describes current conditions; it is not a forecast.
Housing Market Pulse: 30 / 100
Where Thunder Bay sits among the metros we track on construction momentum, completions per resident, rental tightness and rent growth (equal weights, percentile ranks). It describes current conditions only; it is not a price forecast.
Trends
2021-10 to 2026-09. Latest: 88 (Sep 2026).
2021-10 to 2026-09. Latest: 7 (Sep 2026).
2021-10 to 2026-09. Latest: 569 (Sep 2026).
2021-10 to 2026-09. Latest: 20 (Sep 2026).
2006 to 2025. Latest: 4.3 (October 2025 survey).
2006 to 2025. Latest: 1,493 (October 2025 survey).
Sources
Use and cite this data
Download the figures on this page, with reference dates and sources: CSV · JSON
Suggested citation:
Canada Housing Market Data, "Thunder Bay housing market indicators", based on CMHC and Statistics Canada data, updated 2026-11-14. https://canadahousingmarketdata.ca/housing/thunder-bay
Underlying data © the original publishers, reused under their open licences with attribution. Please credit both the original source and this site.